SARIMA

SARIMA stands for Seasonal AutoRegressive Integrated Moving Average. It’s an extension of ARIMA that also models seasonal patterns — great for time series data with trends and repeating cycles (e.g. monthly sales, weekly demand, etc.).

SARIMA Notation

Component	Meaning
p	AR (AutoRegressive) lag order
d	I (Integration): differencing for trend
q	MA (Moving Average) order
P	Seasonal AR
D	Seasonal differencing
Q	Seasonal MA
s	Season length (e.g. 12 for monthly)

When to Use SARIMA?

Use it if your data shows: - A trend (increasing/decreasing over time) - A seasonal pattern (e.g., higher sales every December)

SARIMA Parameters

Param Name	Default Value
AROrder	1
DegreeofDifferencing	1
MAOrder	1
SeasonalAROrder	1
SeasonalDegreeofDifferencing	1
SeasonalMAOrder	1
SeasonalPeriod	12
Method	ML